THE latest Herald/Nielsen opinion poll indicates the swing against Labor will be so great that its plans to renew and rebuild its parliamentary party will be in tatters after next month's state election, with much of its anticipated new talent wiped out before they get to Macquarie Street.
Also swept away will be much of the party's existing ministerial talent, which has been seen as essential to helping rebuild its political presence following a change of government.
In its efforts to push out a large number of sitting MPs, the ALP head office has successfully argued the need for party ''renewal'' and ''rejuvenation'', and has been keen to identify younger members to step up to guide the party forward.
Uniform swings are rare, yet the swing against the government is expected to be so great that ministers who look set to lose their seats include the Deputy Premier and Health Minister, Carmel Tebbutt; Verity Firth (Education); David Borger (Roads); Kevin Greene (Gaming and Racing); Frank Terenzini (Housing); Phil Costa (Water) and Michael Daley (Police).
Also likely to be swept away is Nathan Rees, who has been sitting on the backbench since he was deposed as premier late in 2009. He needed the intervention of the party's head office to secure his preselection against a factional push to unseat him.
Ministers who seem set to be re-elected include the Premier, Kristina Keneally (Heffron); the Transport Minister, John Robertson (standing in Blacktown following Paul Gibson's retirement); the Energy Minister, Paul Lynch (Liverpool); the Minister for Local Government, Barbara Perry (Auburn); and the Community Services Minister, Linda Burney (Canterbury).
Among Labor Party newcomers, Guy Zangari, who is standing in Fairfield following the retirement of Joe Tripodi, looks likely to be safely elected, while in Parramatta, Pierre Esper, who is standing following the retirement of Tanya Gadiel, would miss out.
In Drummoyne, Angelo Tsirekas, who is standing for the ALP following the retirement of Angela D'Amore, would fail to be elected, as would Clayton Barr, who is standing in Cessnock.
Similarly, the Swansea Labor backbencher and key figure on the party's Left, Robert Coombs, would be swept away, but the Right faction player Rob Furolo, who followed the former premier Morris Iemma into Lakemba for the ALP, would be returned.
Labor officials said many government ministers are tied up managing their portfolios, and have been hampered in getting their re-election committees organised and in place.
At the same time, others have been slow to recognise the severity of the swing the party faces at next month's poll and their need to begin working on their re-election to salvage their political futures.
The tsunami of a swing against the government foreshadowed by the Herald/Nielsen poll is much greater than the swing to the Coalition that brought Nick Greiner to power in 1988, election analysts noted.
In that election, the ALP lost 15 seats, with its representation falling to 43 and the Coalition ended up with 59 seats. The result was commonly seen as the worst for Labor since the Jack Lang years of the 1930s.
A swing of the order of magnitude predicted by the poll would cut Labor's lower house representation to as few as 13 seats, boosting the Coalition to as many as 80 seats, in an imbalance of historic proportions.
